نشر في باب نات يوم 30 - 05 - 2025

قرر مجلس إدارة البنك المركزي التونسي، في اجتماعه المنعقد الجمعة، الإبقاء على نسبة الفائدة المديرية عند مستوى 7.5%.
واعتبر المجلس، في بيان أصدره عقب الاجتماع، أنه رغم تراجع نسبة التضخم فمن الضروري تعزيز مسار هذا التراجع وإعادة التضخم إلى معدلاته على المدى الطويل.
واستعرض مجلس الإدارة خلال الاجتماع التطورات الأخيرة للوضع الاقتصادي والمالي على الصعيدين الدولي والوطني، وكذلك تطور التضخم، الذي رغم التراجع المسجل خلال شهر أفريل 2025، لا يزال يتطور فوق معدلاته على المدى الطويل.
وتميز الظرف العالمي بتراجع شبه كلي للأسعار العالمية للمنتجات الغذائية الأساسية والمواد الخام والطاقة، مما دعم عملية تراجع التضخم الجارية. علاوة على ذلك، واصل النمو الاقتصادي إظهار قدرته على الصمود خلال الثلاثي الأول من عام 2025، رغم حالة عدم اليقين الكبيرة المحيطة بمراجعة التعريفات الجمركية والتوترات التجارية بين الاقتصادات الكبرى.
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تباطؤ وطني ونمو صناعي
على المستوى الوطني، شهد النمو الاقتصادي انخفاضا خلال الربع الأول من عام 2025، ليصل إلى 1.6% (على أساس سنوي) مقارنة ب2.4% في الثلاثي السابق.
وعاد الإنتاج الصناعي إلى تحقيق النمو، بفضل استئناف أنشطة البناء والأداء الجيد للصناعات الغذائية.
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تفاقم العجز التجاري وتأثيره
على مستوى القطاع الخارجي، تفاقم العجز التجاري إلى 7294 مليون دينار في نهاية أفريل 2025، نتيجة تسارع نسق الواردات وانخفاض الصادرات، مما أثر على ميزان المدفوعات.
ونتيجة لذلك، اتسع عجز الحساب الجاري إلى 3260 مليون دينار (1.8% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي) مقارنة ب1074 مليون دينار (0.6%) في نفس الفترة من العام الماضي، رغم الأداء الإيجابي لإيرادات السياحة ودخل العمل.
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الاحتياطي والتحسن في سعر الصرف
بلغ احتياطي الصرف 22.7 مليار دينار (98 يوم توريد) بتاريخ 29 ماي 2025، مقارنة ب27.3 مليار دينار (121 يوم توريد) في نهاية 2024.
في المقابل، حقق سعر صرف الدينار تحسنا مقابل العملات الرئيسية، مما ساهم في مواصلة دعم تراجع التضخم.
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تراجع التضخم والأسعار عند الاستهلاك
شهد شهر أفريل 2025 تراجعا في نسبة التضخم إلى 5.6% بعد أن بلغت 5.9% في الشهر السابق، ويُعزى ذلك إلى ارتفاع مستوى الطلب خلال شهر رمضان.
هذا التراجع نتج أساسا عن تباطؤ التضخم الأساسي، الذي يُقاس بمؤشر الأسعار عند الاستهلاك باستثناء المنتجات الغذائية الطازجة والمنتجات بالأسعار المؤطرة، والذي انخفض من 5.2% في مارس إلى 4.8% في أفريل 2025.

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